The PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry projects double digit GDP growth in Q1 FY 2022-23 on the back of increase in economic activity, manufacturing capacity utilization, demand for contact intensive services, consumer sentiments and continued improvement in key economic and business indicators, said Mr Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
We expect a GDP growth rate of more than 12.5% in the Q1 FY 2022-23, said Mr. Pradeep Multani
According to the PHDCCI Economic & Business Momentum (EBM) Index, the 25 lead economic and business indicators have shown a significant recovery at 106.1 for Q1 FY 2022-23 as compared to 97.9 for Q1 FY 2021-22, at the base of 2018-19 = 100.
Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)
| PHDCCI EBM Index
2018-19=100 |
Q1 FY 2017-18 | Q1 FY 2018-19 | Q1 FY 2019-20 | Q1 FY 2020-21 | Q1 FY 2021-22 | Q1 FY 2022-23 |
| 95.7 | 99.7 | 100.9 | 85.2 | 97.9 | 106.1 |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index
Lead economic and business indicators such as GST collection, merchandise exports, services exports and Coal have shown a noteworthy improvement in Q1 FY 2022-23 as compared to the Q1 FY 2021-22, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
Sequentially, the PHDCCI EBM Index has shown an uptrend for Q1 FY 2022-23 to the level of 106.1 as compared to 103.3 for Q4 FY 2021-22, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
Economic recovery so far (Sequential)
| PHDCCI EBM Index
2018-19=100 |
Q4 FY 2020-21 | Q1 FY 2021-22 | Q2 FY 2021-22 | Q3 FY 2021-22 | Q4 FY 2021-22 | Q1 FY 2022-23 |
| 99.7 | 97.9 | 101.5 | 102.6 | 103.3 | 106.1 |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index.
The quarterly movement of PHDCCI EBM Index and quarterly GDP growth rates are highly correlated at 0.7 as depicted in Chart-2, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
| Chart-1 : PHDCCI EBM Index: Monthly Trend (Base: 2018-19=100) | Chart-2 : PHDCCI EBM Index (Base: 2018-19=100) and GDP Growth Rates (in %): Quarterly Trend | ||
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index; GDP growth figures compiled from MOSPI. Note: Q1 FY 2023 is estimated by PHD Chamber.
PHDCCI EBM (Economic and Business Momentum) Index has shown steady recovery from the lows of 78.3 for April 2020 to 100.3 for April 2021 to 106.9 for April 2022, 105.8 for May 2022 as compared to 95.2 for May 2021 and 85.7 for May 2020, 105.7 for June 2022 as compared to 98 for June 2021 and 91.6 in June 2020, with a base of 2018-19=100.
The recent Government initiatives as well as the achievements marked by India, such as 6 billion UPI transactions in July 2022, 5G spectrum auction gross value at Rs. 1,50,173 crore, allowance of invoicing and payments for international trade in Indian Rupee by RBI, significant Government e-Marketplace (GeM) total procurement value of Rs 2,70,384 Crore (as on 25 July 2022 since its inception), FDI inflow at US$ 84 billion level in FY 2022, among others, are highly appreciable, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
Going ahead, the pace of economic activity is expected to remain strong on the back of various structural reforms undertaken by the Government during the last 2 years, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
PHDCCI EBM Index is a composite index of 25 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which considers the demand and supply indicators to present a broad perspective of the economy. The 25 indicators include the IIP Consumer durable goods, IIP Consumer non-durable goods, IIP Capital Goods, IIP Intermediate Goods, Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Petroleum Refinery Products, Fertilisers, Steel, Cement, Electricity, Consumption of Petroleum products, Export Merchandise, Export Services, India Freight Traffic, Credit to Agriculture, Credit to Industry, Credit to service sector, Personal Loans, GST Collections, SENSEX, FDI Equity Inflows, External commercial borrowings and Unemployment.
Full PHDCCI EBM Index report attached
PHDCCI EBM Index
Base: 2018-19=100
| Sr No | Economic Indicators | Q1
FY 2021-22 |
Q1
FY 2022-23 |
Q1 FY 2022-23 – Q1 FY 2021-22 |
| 1 | IIP Consumer durable goods | 78.6 | 99.6 | 21.1 |
| 2 | IIP Consumer non-durable goods | 117.8 | 119.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | IIP Capital Goods | 75.2 | 97.1 | 22.0 |
| 4 | IIP Intermediate Goods | 110.3 | 123.1 | 12.8 |
| 5 | Coal | 101.7 | 133.3 | 31.6 |
| 6 | Crude Oil | 82.4 | 82.9 | 0.5 |
| 7 | Natural Gas | 105.9 | 111.0 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Petroleum Refinery Products | 100.0 | 113.6 | 13.5 |
| 9 | Fertilizers | 103.2 | 116.6 | 13.4 |
| 10 | Steel | 116.0 | 123.2 | 7.3 |
| 11 | Cement | 109.8 | 128.3 | 18.6 |
| 12 | Electricity | 116.5 | 136.0 | 19.5 |
| 13 | Consumption of Petroleum products | 97.0 | 113.3 | 16.3 |
| 14 | Export Merchandise Growth | 144.8 | 181.5 | 36.7 |
| 15 | Export Services | 133.1 | 178.6 | 45.5 |
| 16 | India Freight Traffic | 107.4 | 114.7 | 7.3 |
| 17 | Credit to Agriculture | 111.0 | 111.8 | 0.8 |
| 18 | Credit to Industry | 100.3 | 108.8 | 8.5 |
| 19 | Credit to service sector | 102.0 | 112.3 | 10.3 |
| 20 | Personal Loans | 112.3 | 116.4 | 4.1 |
| 21 | GST Collection | 112.3 | 151.0 | 38.7 |
| 22 | SENSEX (Daily average) | 182.7 | 200.8 | 18.1 |
| 23 | FDI Equity Inflows | 157.2 | 133.0 | -24.2 |
| 24 | External commercial borrowings | 83.6 | 67.0 | -16.5 |
| 25 | Unemployment | 94.7 | 96.6 | 1.8 |
| Composite Weighted Index | 97.9 | 106.1 | 8.2 | |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI EBM Index Note: For calculation purpose, the FDI figure for April 2022, May 2022 and June 2022 are moving average of last 3 months; figures are rounded off.
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